Waiting for the big-market bond rotation

The OECD issued its latest revision on global economic growth prospects, in the first of his two appointments or annual reviews. The overall impression is of slow growth and downward adjustments in earlier projections.

In USA GDP will expand even more slowly, at rates of 1.9% this year and 2.8% in 2014.

In Europe much more pessimistic, expecting a contraction of 0.36% of GDP this year and moderate growth of 1.1% in 2014. The main problem remains the debt.

For Asia disparate and curious vision, the two largest economies China and Japan grow although downgrades the first, to 7.8% and the second upward to 1.6%. Curious because if China grows below 7.8% will be a warning sign of weakness and would alert the government while if Japan grows by 1.6% all happy ... not the Nikkei has left a 5.15% on the session.

U.S. bond markets nervous, considering that the expected growth without being robust, it could be enough to affect the asset purchase program by the Fed.

Furthermore bonds approaching resistance area (in profitability or price support, as you look) interesting from a technical perspective, the 10 years in 2.4%, which if exceeded invite managers to modify some strategies.

The technical aspect of fixed income USA invites caution for months, as I come through the graphic exposing long stretch following:

Bonds "high Yied" are also suffering falling sales and prices in line with the sovereign. You can read at this link an interesting article about the risks of rising rates, derived from the tendency to convexity hedging.

A reference to the debt market USA is the ETF (AGG) designed to track the performance of all U.S. debt, Total U.S. Bond Market ETF (37% Treasuries, 28% MBS and the rest in corporate and agencies) capitalization of $ 15,600 million is also falling in price and this will be five weeks straight and falling sales.

Generally, when the bonds fall weak moves financial markets assembly and intermediate trends ruptures tend to bring major changes in the outlook and portfolio adjustment, feeding additional losses in assets.

This time, before such change in the mindset presumed investor and as turbulent markets, handled all markets fall? Unison or there will be a mass migration of Fixed Income Funds Equity?.

Uncertainty about the Great Rotation is debated and concern among fund managers and selectors will depend largely on market confidence about staying "apuntaladora" Bernanke and real economic opportunities.

In view of the behavior of the Fed, it could be argued that the Great Rotation want to further enhance asset reflation and get the expected wealth effect that can finally bring down the pernicious tendency of the money multiplier.

Specific corrections in stock prices are necessary and "healthy" for the strength of trends, there should be an adjustment at any time, perhaps coinciding with breaks bearish on bonds.

After an eventual correction will attract capital bags different sources, one of them raised liquidity proceed with the settings fixed income portfolio and if the helicopter flies over satin, as the FED-BAG correlation is 85%.

True, stock valuations discounted cash flow worsen with rising interest rates and subtract bag. However, the bag can also grow through multiples expansion as we tested several times.

The music continues to play and as said the CEO of City before the debacle, must keep on dancing ... but unlike Mr. Charles Prince also closely monitoring the situation to avoid being caught in an artificial rise will end in tears, as the rest.

Difference between active and passive

Of all the definitions of assets and liabilities are only have to stay with the most important, and you have to remember forever.

An asset is something, an investment that puts money in your pocket. However slightly.

A liability is something that takes away the money from his pocket. An expense.

Do not confuse these two concepts as there are many people who think that the house where he lives is an asset and a good investment and nothing is further from reality. A commonly used house is a liability because it does not receive any income from it, and will only be active if one day we decided to sell it to cash, and keep the money.

 

While the home where you live "cost you" money as much as your expectations make you think that in ten years you will get high returns are sitting on a pile of bricks and not on an investment.

Could encompass how active an investment in stock , bonds , a house to rent a bank deposit ...

And conversely a liability would be for example the commonly used home, second homes, a car and all that to make ends meet instead of giving money taketh away.

Spain is deeply rooted in the idea of ​​buying a flat / house and think it's an investment, "a piggy bank" for the future in case of contingencies or just spend the feel you're going to have a possession to be worth tens of thousands euros and you feel you've "invested" or you're going to invest the money.

And you have to be very careful as always not buy is more profitable than renting . The other day I read that 80% of people who have a mortgage for 5-10 years ago is paying more than it is actually worth your floor. And that's not an investment. It is a liability how a house never better.

From the moment you decide to live financially in an efficient manner have an obligation to be creating assets and go slowly getting rid of liabilities that have made ​​previously, and we saw what is the best way to start eliminating debt .

A monthly savings combined with any investment, simple or complicated, and applied over time with compound interest is the best way to create quality assets that slowly but gradually will be putting money in your pocket.

And you've started to build assets? We invite you to tell us what is your strategy to get more and more in his pocket.

The U.S. economy grew 2.4% in the first quarter

Washington, May 30 (Thomson Financial). - The U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 2.4% in the first quarter, a tenth less than originally planned, as a result of public spending cuts approved by Congress, especially on defense. However, Commerce Department data released today highlight that consumer spending rebounded in the first three months of the year at a rate of 3.4%, the highest in the past two years. The data is particularly significant in an economy like the U.S., where private consumption accounts for almost 70% of the total Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In its first estimate, the federal agency had estimated GDP growth at 2.5% for the period between January and February. In this way, the U.S. economy recorded over two years of sustained growth, despite its still palpable warmth accelerates its expansion over the last quarter of 2012, when it expanded 0.4%. The U.S. trade balance data also showed positive, with an increase in exports of goods and services by 0.8% compared with a fall of 2.8% reported for the fourth quarter of 2012, and imports which grew by only 1.9 % compared with a decrease of 4.2% in the previous period. Also, the real estate sector seems to consolidate its recovery from the 2008 crisis, and residential fixed investment grew at a rate of 12.1%. As a brake on economic growth, in contrast, behaved steep spending cuts amounting to 85,000 million approved last March to the end of the fiscal year in September 2013. Government spending fell 4.9% compared to 4.1% forecast in the first of three official estimates, with special emphasis on the defense sector which fell by 12.1%, compared with 11, estimated 5% previously. Without these cuts, the U.S. economic growth would have been 3.4% in the quarter. Meanwhile, prices remained controlled behavior, registering a growth of 1% in the annual adjusted, down from 1.6% at the end of last year, let alone the 2% threshold marked by the Federal Reserve ( Fed) U.S.. Although the data show some optimism about the U.S. economic discourse, the truth is that it is too weak to continue lowering the high unemployment rate in the country, which remains a major concern of citizens and which closed April in a 7.5%. In a parallel data released today, the figure weekly esempleo subsidy claims in the U.S. rose by 10,000 and stood at 354,000 last week. Experts valued the good performance of the economy in the context of sharp cuts in public spending, but said that is unlikely to affect the aggressive monetary stimulus policy implemented by the Fed to stimulate growth. In a recent appearance before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress, the Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke, stated that the policy stimulus including interest rates between 0% and 0.25% and monthly program billionaire bond buying is changed unless finding an economic expansion "continuous and sustainable." The third and final data on U.S. GDP will be released on June 26. MarketWatch

Washington, May 30 (Thomson Financial). - The U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 2.4% in the first quarter, a tenth less than originally planned, as a result of public spending cuts approved by Congress, especially on defense. However, Commerce Department data released today highlight that consumer spending rebounded in the first three months of the year at a rate of 3.4%, the highest in the past two years. The data is particularly significant in an economy like the U.S., where private consumption accounts for almost 70% of the total Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In its first estimate, the federal agency had estimated GDP growth at 2.5% for the period between January and February. In this way, the U.S. economy recorded over two years of sustained growth, despite its still palpable warmth accelerates its expansion over the last quarter of 2012, when it expanded 0.4%. The U.S. trade balance data also showed positive, with an increase in exports of goods and services by 0.8% compared with a fall of 2.8% reported for the fourth quarter of 2012, and imports which grew by only 1.9 % compared with a decrease of 4.2% in the previous period. Also, the real estate sector seems to consolidate its recovery from the 2008 crisis, and residential fixed investment grew at a rate of 12.1%. As a brake on economic growth, in contrast, behaved steep spending cuts amounting to 85,000 million approved last March to the end of the fiscal year in September 2013. Government spending fell 4.9% compared to 4.1% forecast in the first of three official estimates, with special emphasis on the defense sector which fell by 12.1%, compared with 11, estimated 5% previously. Without these cuts, the U.S. economic growth would have been 3.4% in the quarter. Meanwhile, prices remained controlled behavior, registering a growth of 1% in the annual adjusted, down from 1.6% at the end of last year, let alone the 2% threshold marked by the Federal Reserve ( Fed) U.S.. Although the data show some optimism about the U.S. economic discourse, the truth is that it is too weak to continue lowering the high unemployment rate in the country, which remains a major concern of citizens and which closed April in a 7.5%. In a parallel data released today, the figure weekly esempleo subsidy claims in the U.S. rose by 10,000 and stood at 354,000 last week. Experts valued the good performance of the economy in the context of sharp cuts in public spending, but said that is unlikely to affect the aggressive monetary stimulus policy implemented by the Fed to stimulate growth. In a recent appearance before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress, the Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke, stated that the policy stimulus including interest rates between 0% and 0.25% and monthly program billionaire bond buying is changed unless finding an economic expansion "continuous and sustainable." The third and final data on U.S. GDP will be released on June 26. MarketWatch

The U.S. economy grew 2.4% in the first quarter - Expansion.com

Washington, May 30 (Thomson Financial). - The U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 2.4% in the first quarter, a tenth less than originally planned, as a result of public spending cuts approved by Congress, especially on defense. However, Commerce Department data released today highlight that consumer spending rebounded in the first three months of the year at a rate of 3.4%, the highest in the past two years. The data is particularly significant in an economy like the U.S., where private consumption accounts for almost 70% of the total Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In its first estimate, the federal agency had estimated GDP growth at 2.5% for the period between January and February. In this way, the U.S. economy recorded over two years of sustained growth, despite its still palpable warmth accelerates its expansion over the last quarter of 2012, when it expanded 0.4%. The U.S. trade balance data also showed positive, with an increase in exports of goods and services by 0.8% compared with a fall of 2.8% reported for the fourth quarter of 2012, and imports which grew by only 1.9 % compared with a decrease of 4.2% in the previous period. Also, the real estate sector seems to consolidate its recovery from the 2008 crisis, and residential fixed investment grew at a rate of 12.1%. As a brake on economic growth, in contrast, behaved steep spending cuts amounting to 85,000 million approved last March to the end of the fiscal year in September 2013. Government spending fell 4.9% compared to 4.1% forecast in the first of three official estimates, with special emphasis on the defense sector which fell by 12.1%, compared with 11, estimated 5% previously. Without these cuts, the U.S. economic growth would have been 3.4% in the quarter. Meanwhile, prices remained controlled behavior, registering a growth of 1% in the annual adjusted, down from 1.6% at the end of last year, let alone the 2% threshold marked by the Federal Reserve ( Fed) U.S.. Although the data show some optimism about the U.S. economic discourse, the truth is that it is too weak to continue lowering the high unemployment rate in the country, which remains a major concern of citizens and which closed April in a 7.5%. In a parallel data released today, the figure weekly esempleo subsidy claims in the U.S. rose by 10,000 and stood at 354,000 last week. Experts valued the good performance of the economy in the context of sharp cuts in public spending, but said that is unlikely to affect the aggressive monetary stimulus policy implemented by the Fed to stimulate growth. In a recent appearance before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress, the Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke, stated that the policy stimulus including interest rates between 0% and 0.25% and monthly program billionaire bond buying is changed unless finding an economic expansion "continuous and sustainable." The third and final data on U.S. GDP will be released on June 26. MarketWatch

The U.S. economy grew 2.4% in the first quarter - Expansion.com

Washington, May 30 (Thomson Financial). - The U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 2.4% in the first quarter, a tenth less than originally planned, as a result of public spending cuts approved by Congress, especially on defense. However, Commerce Department data released today highlight that consumer spending rebounded in the first three months of the year at a rate of 3.4%, the highest in the past two years. The data is particularly significant in an economy like the U.S., where private consumption accounts for almost 70% of the total Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In its first estimate, the federal agency had estimated GDP growth at 2.5% for the period between January and February. In this way, the U.S. economy recorded over two years of sustained growth, despite its still palpable warmth accelerates its expansion over the last quarter of 2012, when it expanded 0.4%. The U.S. trade balance data also showed positive, with an increase in exports of goods and services by 0.8% compared with a fall of 2.8% reported for the fourth quarter of 2012, and imports which grew by only 1.9 % compared with a decrease of 4.2% in the previous period. Also, the real estate sector seems to consolidate its recovery from the 2008 crisis, and residential fixed investment grew at a rate of 12.1%. As a brake on economic growth, in contrast, behaved steep spending cuts amounting to 85,000 million approved last March to the end of the fiscal year in September 2013. Government spending fell 4.9% compared to 4.1% forecast in the first of three official estimates, with special emphasis on the defense sector which fell by 12.1%, compared with 11, estimated 5% previously. Without these cuts, the U.S. economic growth would have been 3.4% in the quarter. Meanwhile, prices remained controlled behavior, registering a growth of 1% in the annual adjusted, down from 1.6% at the end of last year, let alone the 2% threshold marked by the Federal Reserve ( Fed) U.S.. Although the data show some optimism about the U.S. economic discourse, the truth is that it is too weak to continue lowering the high unemployment rate in the country, which remains a major concern of citizens and which closed April in a 7.5%. In a parallel data released today, the figure weekly esempleo subsidy claims in the U.S. rose by 10,000 and stood at 354,000 last week. Experts valued the good performance of the economy in the context of sharp cuts in public spending, but said that is unlikely to affect the aggressive monetary stimulus policy implemented by the Fed to stimulate growth. In a recent appearance before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress, the Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke, stated that the policy stimulus including interest rates between 0% and 0.25% and monthly program billionaire bond buying is changed unless finding an economic expansion "continuous and sustainable." The third and final data on U.S. GDP will be released on June 26. MarketWatch

The U.S. economy grew 2.4% in the first quarter - Expansion.com

IMF cuts growth forecast for China and warns of the credit problem

The Fund, which last month had placed the growth prospects for the Republic at 8% this year and 8.2% next, now estimates that the economy of this country will only increase by 7.75% this year and in 2014.
The IMF has doubts about the quality of Chinese investment by the rapid increase créditoEn a press conference in Beijing at the end of their annual mission to evaluate the progress of the Chinese economy, the Fund Deputy Managing Director David Lipton, attributed the cut in estimates of the weakness of the global economy, which has reduced the appetite for Chinese exports.
Lipton said the rapid growth of social financing, an indicator of credit available has grown very quickly, which "raises concerns about the quality of investments and their impact on the ability to repay the loans."
In particular, concerns increase while the increase represents "a rapidly growing part of the credit flows through parts unless supervised financial system."
The financial and monetary policy developed by Beijing is "appropriate" in this sense, Lipton found that one of the risks is that the loans are intended for investments "that are not sufficiently useful for the country."
In his view, control the overall growth of social finance is a "priority" will require greater oversight and accountability of investors for the decisions they make.
These policies may slow growth in the short term, he admitted, but stressed at the same time support the transition to a more sustainable model of growth.
However, Lipton insisted that financial and monetary policy developed by Beijing is "appropriate".
If this year's growth were to fall below the targets? Chinese government has set a target of 7.5 percent for this year?, The Fund recommends using a fiscal stimulus that favors income and domestic consumption.
The new Chinese government which took office in March is preparing a series of economic reforms that intends to present in October and which may include, among other things, greater openness to private investment and measures to promote the development.
Growth has become too dependent on the continued expansion of inversionesEntre detected problems are international financial institution which growth [...]

How the International Monetary Fund work

To get in history, the International Monetary Fund was created in 1945 in the United States, and its main objectives are to promote international monetary cooperation, facilitate international trade, and reduce, ultimately, poverty. It also conducts economic policies international regulatory and conciliatory. It is part of the United Nations being an intergovernmental organization made up of 187 members. Headquartered in Washington DC, but has several offices around the world.

IMF Performance

• The main objective of the International Monetary Fund is to ensure the stability of the international monetary system that allows member countries, and therefore its citizens transact with each other, which makes maintaining a stable financial system, sustainable and balanced.
• For this, the International Monetary Fund provides funding to member countries to improve the margin of maneuver of each country in relation to its balance of payments. Between national authorities and the International Monetary Fund made an action plan, ensuring effective both for its compliance.
• It also provides technical support and does a great job as a consultant to member countries to develop effective economic policies, for example on tax administration, monetary and exchange rate policy, supervision and regulation of banking systems and the regulations governing them.

IMF Resources

• Currently, the countries to become members of the International Monetary Fund, quotas must deposit called "subscription fees", which are directly related to the economic capacity of the country.
• These assessments determine the economic aid that the Fund will provide each country as well as their right to vote in decisions about regulations. Thus, the higher the contribution of a country, the more power on joint decisions and have more financial aid when tackling a crisis.
• When a country needs financial aid, IMF gives 25% of its shares, with the country's commitment to return within a period ranging from 3 to 5 years. It is expected that the country must repay the loan as soon as possible to not leave without credit to other member countries.
• In the past, obtaining resources from the International Monetary Fund was made by obtaining the interest on loans outstanding, which made it less effective and solvent, then opting for the model that is currently running .

What are the criteria of banks to lend

Unlike what banks and preach the good credit history of a customer is the most important when lending to this, but taking into account factors that are related to the ability to repay the loan voluntarily or necessity, and that should be very clear.

The ability to pay

The business of a credit institution not sue their debtors and keep their property in the event of default, which also usually results in losses, but to collect the amount borrowed and the interest and fees on time.
For this reason, the main criterion for granting loans is that the applicant can meet the periodic installments. Generally, in the case of mortgages, the monthly fee should not exceed 35% of the borrower's monthly income and your household.
If it is a loan in the medium or long term, banks and fixing the type of employment contract that the customer has, in addition to the strength of the employer. If this does not convince them, may require hiring a payment protection insurance, for example.

The warranty

Second, to ensure that in case of default can recover the borrowed capital and interest, the guarantee granted is very important. If it comes to purchasing a home, precisely the mortgage on the property is essential because the loan shall not exceed 80% of the valuation of this.
In other cases, especially whether to grant loans for amounts higher or long periods, you may require the financial institution, for example, the guarantor, that is, someone other than the client is committed to your estate to pay the debt if it does not comply.
It is also usual for the agency credit loans is fixed in current assets of the applicant, that is, both money and other personal property such as stocks or jewelry that may eventually be left with the first, as a garment, and use it to collect the debt.