May 29, 2013

IMF cuts growth forecast for China and warns of the credit problem



















The Fund, which last month had placed the growth prospects for the Republic at 8% this year and 8.2% next, now estimates that the economy of this country will only increase by 7.75% this year and in 2014.
The IMF has doubts about the quality of Chinese investment by the rapid increase créditoEn a press conference in Beijing at the end of their annual mission to evaluate the progress of the Chinese economy, the Fund Deputy Managing Director David Lipton, attributed the cut in estimates of the weakness of the global economy, which has reduced the appetite for Chinese exports.
Lipton said the rapid growth of social financing, an indicator of credit available has grown very quickly, which "raises concerns about the quality of investments and their impact on the ability to repay the loans."
In particular, concerns increase while the increase represents "a rapidly growing part of the credit flows through parts unless supervised financial system."
The financial and monetary policy developed by Beijing is "appropriate" in this sense, Lipton found that one of the risks is that the loans are intended for investments "that are not sufficiently useful for the country."
In his view, control the overall growth of social finance is a "priority" will require greater oversight and accountability of investors for the decisions they make.
These policies may slow growth in the short term, he admitted, but stressed at the same time support the transition to a more sustainable model of growth.
However, Lipton insisted that financial and monetary policy developed by Beijing is "appropriate".
If this year's growth were to fall below the targets? Chinese government has set a target of 7.5 percent for this year?, The Fund recommends using a fiscal stimulus that favors income and domestic consumption.
The new Chinese government which took office in March is preparing a series of economic reforms that intends to present in October and which may include, among other things, greater openness to private investment and measures to promote the development.
Growth has become too dependent on the continued expansion of inversionesEntre detected problems are international financial institution which growth [...]

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