The Compound Interest (part II)

In the previous article we discussed that with compound interest was not very difficult to arrive at a figure of, say, € 300,000.

Well, needless to say, despite not be complicated requiring high doses of patience and discipline. Highly difficult thing when you have a considerable amount of money in hand, the temptation to eat uncontrollably or buying a luxury item, see a car, a house etc. exponentially increase.

A major plus point is the age at which you start, it is clear that the longer devote the most amount of compound interest can gather during a given period of time. So begin no later than age 30 would be ideal.

The first is to score a goal. Then decide how we figure that we will be around for a few years head.

Suppose we do not want risks and we're moving from, for example, 3-4% will give us a bank deposit and give us 5-7% by acquiring quality corporate debt. We mark a savings rate X which in monthly maturities of our investments go humble adding interest.

 

 

At the end of each year will add to the annual CPI rate of savings we had last year so we make sure we do not lose purchasing power over the years and inflation were not gaining ground.

An example. Monthly savings rate € 500, in a year together € 6,000. The next year we will have € 6,000 in an investment for example at 4.5% APR so that at the end of the second year we will have € 6,000 the first year, plus interest of € 6000 to 4.5% (213 euros after tax ( 21%)), but the 6000 euros (plus CPI should have risen to the saving rate) in the second year. A total of 12,213 euros in two years just.

Do you get the idea right? The third year we invested 12,213 euros, for example, the 4.5% that we will generate € 434 after tax, but the 6000 (plus annual CPI) for the third year, in total € 18,647.

In three years we will have € 18,647 without having updated the saving rate not to complicate the explanation. I think it's pretty clear the concept.

It is clear that more and more savings rate interest we reached the goal faster. But the same does not increase the interest savings. If you double the interest rate at which you are making your money work the result will not bend but is multiplied by 3'5. So imagine that can happen maximizing the savings rate and get a higher annual interest average. Spectacular.

It happens snowball effect, the principle is much start but once we have run for anyone.

To give more examples and see how it affects a slight increase projected interest rate over time.

Starting with 0 and with a savings rate of 610 € monthly, 3% compound interest capitalized through in 20 years we will have about 200,000 euros, in fact rather more in the calculation because we have not updated the CPI savings rate.

Just changing the 3% to 5% and we almost € 250,000. Can we imagine if we get over it?

If for whatever reason we can start from a number other than 0 that we have gained in time.

Let everyone do their calculations, charts and projections and let your imagination run wild. On the net there are plenty of calculators and compound interest tables .

Anyone is more motivated? You just have to want it.

Strategy for change Euros into another currency. The right way.

There are quite a stir with the Spanish financial system and not for less. There are many people who come to the blog through an article I wrote about how to protect ourselves in case of financial playpen . Well, there are many readers who ask about the foreign exchange, exchange euros for dollars or Swiss francs.

A priori there is no secret but deep down is a dangerous operation to our heritage and here we will explain some concepts.

We will explain a strategy to follow if you want to change our euros for another currency, so whether there playpen, etc. back to the peseta.

Let's start from the premise that there is a strategy for all profiles and you have to be very clear concepts, which has a high risk and often not worth the want to protect with the end result.

To protect small amounts best and most practical refrain would buy U.S. stocks, get the money from the bank and save it at home or invest in a product that is not in euros and that is outside of our national borders.

Come to the point. It turns out that if we change our euros for Swiss francs Swiss francs have more euros as it changes at a rate of 1.20 francs per euro. If you always had this change of currency would not have any problem but not, it fluctuates daily and can vary significantly over time. For example, the October 12, 2007 was changed at a rate of 1.67 euro and Swiss franc on August 10 de 2011 to 1.04 francs a euro, almost parity.

What does that mean? Somebody would have changed 1000 euros into Swiss francs maximum day would have had 1670 Swiss francs and minimum day with the same 1000 euros only 1040 Swiss francs.

Example. If we change 10,000 euros to obtain CHF 12,000 CHF (Swiss Francs). (We do not have commissions to make it easier).

The change of today is 1 Euro 1.20 CHF but if in one year we have to recover the money and change is in 1.40 not recover the 10,000 euros but we have to do the following calculation: 12,000 / 1.40 = 8571 euros. With only twenty cents change coin we lost 1429 euros.

On the contrary if we do change to 1.10 Swiss francs will earn 10 cents euro the currency exchange and we bagged 900 euros obtaining a total of 10,900 euros.

So far there is no secret, pure mathematics. Doing this is very simple but do it well and minimizing risk is more complicated.

What would we do? Would open an account with a Forex broker (broker who works with currencies) and we we would have to create a hedge on our exchange.

If bought at 1.20 and increases (1.25, 1.30 ...) lose money so we will long (buy) in the EUR / CHF, ie bet that the change will continue to grow, that way currency exchange our money but lose our operation in derivatives will win, and more or less have to compensate.

We detect that the price turns and the Swiss franc starts to revalue against the euro, as long as we closed our investment in itself is no longer in losses.

If detected again as trends change can re-open a long or short hedging.

Summarizing. If the investment goes well we do nothing, if it goes wrong we opened a financial derivative currency pair opposite to our investment and investment lose but win with derivatives, to compensate. By detecting turnaround derivative will be closed and that our investment will not pro our derivative loss itself.

Surely there are people who do not understand these concepts, as I said at the start that it is a strategy for people who have some mastery of finance. But basically it's not complicated. You just have to learn to manage financial derivatives in Forex is tricky as there are lots of leverage and we can be more expensive the coverage of investment loss itself.

He opened the floor to questions

Equities vs. fixed income

We want to invest but do not know where to start. We heard that a neighbor buys shares, another has-bills ... but it sounds like Chinese. The most common among the ordinary people, not familiar with the investment world is to know the stock exchange. Equities bag not associated with on many occasions.

If we go a step further, on the other side of the sidewalk, no bonds. Four out of five people questioned in the street has never heard of the bonds, but the bonds of state and treasury bills.

There is a lack of knowledge of concepts and the association has to be clear that equity = stock exchange = buy / sell shares on an exchange.

And fixed income = letters / bonds / debentures, although in this case it is not so easy to explain as above.

I am often asked which is better, if the fixed or variable?, is an open question as it is not a duel to be the best way to invest, but every one of the options requires a plan or strategy determined and made ​​to measure.

By email I have received a comment on why equities RECOMMEND even. I have to say that I've never done, just position myself where best suits me and I adapt to the rules of the game on the fly. Who else who ever invested less in stock, if not he will have done so indirectly through your bank in a structured deposit or a mutual fund. Of all the people who have bought shares being aware of what they did, probably 8 out of 10 will have lost money, have won something and that ten will be made ​​in August. It's pure statistics. To earn a few most be missed.

The bag is fascinating. But never an individual investor may invest to a "higher level" because just as fascinating is equally manipulable. If I want to buy shares of Google I can do with a few mouse clicks. I can think that the company is "on fire" and that will go far. But managers may hedge funds, pension funds and large investment funds do not think the same and withdraw their positions. In that case the action begin letting down caught out if I have not heard before, either by choice or by the use of a stop loss (stop loss).

The strategy followed by these three groups of investors is quite simple in concept. They come in solid companies with good growth and the mere fact of having a reputation draws lots of people, and I do not mean people like you and me (also), but managers and smaller funds and large investors capital private. When the action is "hot" is said, the great go through the back door, by stealth, reaping the benefits and leaving others with an action that is devalued by simply taking away a part of its value . This happens every day, and is to blame for that 8 out of 10 of us lose money in stock market.

If you look at a recent case we can see if Apple / Google. The first was the world's most powerful company, shares more than 700 usd and bank account filled to the brim, to say nothing of the benefits you get. Until one day a great manager decides he has had enough and leaves, of course others are wary and follow him. There is no reason. Humans are like dogs when you shoot with a stick.

Source | Yahoo! Finance

So where has the money gone? Much of it directly to Google. In six months is up 40% to more than 900 usd per share, your business is going well or very well, but Apple is stronger and gets more benefits. And the box (cash money) is several times larger than that of the search engine block. But the funds are positioned in the search, making skyrocket while Apple already looks like 700 usd far and passes through a discrete (to be what it is) 400 usd.

Source | Yahoo! Finance

Until some lit, some other privileged information worldwide leading company, decides to abandon positions. The action will begin to lose because it is what makes the law of supply and demand. If a site is removed as there are less.

With fixed income this can not happen in this measure. Market does not work like this. As much as the bond is not fixed for the purpose of this type of investment is not the same. In this market, commonly, it comes knowing what is going to win, and although we can speculate without any problem, large funds do not use this method. In this market, which we are most knowing the outcome. Knowing that the current uncertainty is no reason for you to lose money, and if all goes well I will recover the initial capital plus interest at maturity.

Clearly positioning myself for fixed income, but that does not mean they do not use the equity (if I use it) but I move into what best suits my investment method.

I see it like a business. Imagine you are the manager of a company and you have two possible scenarios for the end of year results. Think of your choice dependent jobs. On one side of the table is the aggressive option (the reference to equities), this option is as follows: if the thing goes well the company will earn a 25% in this fiscal year. If something goes wrong the company will lose 15% and you have to make a cut of 30% of the workforce.

Across the table is the most relaxed (relating to bonds), in that you will not lose in that year but the benefits will not 8%.

Which do you prefer?

Sure you reflect on this example you have decided that the bond is better. No, not better. It's different. It is used for different things. It depends on your plan and your ambition. Not the same winning by 8% to 25%, but it is the same to win by 8% to lose 15%.

Quite some time I am in favor of adding 8 at 8, and not from adding 25 +10 -15 -8. I hope you understand. I am more than convinced that long-term earning just over fixed income than equities.

Just to give an example, a well-known blog (I will not say the name), which have a public investment portfolio. Since 2008, have achieved 16% revalue. A 16% cumulative, then dividing by the years from the start date is plus or minus 3%.

  In fixed income, and without being a "master business" minimum multiply that number by two.

This is not to say it's easy and those who invest in equities fools. Not at all. Only that each tool is used to a certain way of working.

Bank deposit. You know how it works?

When hiring a bank deposit must look at several things and although it seems to be the easiest investment there, it is not the end of the post and I will tell you that if it is, we have to fix on the characteristics of product we hired, mostly to give us for a ride and at the end we get on a good scare and anger.

Before everything. A bank deposit, fixed term or fixed-term deposit is the same. You will leave some money to the bank to do its thing and he in return gives you a interest as compensation. It has a fixed duration and fixed remuneration contract is fixed, ie before entering already know what you're going to win. They are also guaranteed by the state (FGD) 100,000 per entity and person in case of bank failure.

This strong interest is mainly governed by the Euribor (interest rate to lend money to, including, entities) but with the whole issue of the crisis the illiquidity of banks have had to forget the taxes low interest rates by the European Central Bank (ECB) and make aggressive campaigns to individual customers a higher interest rate.

While official interest rates are at 1% banks are paying them to liabilities with 4.6% APR and without any connection from the client.

We will explain in more understandable words what the previous sentence. THE European Central Bank fixed in 1% the interest rate at which it lends money to banks, that is, that when you decide to open a window of liquidity to banks in need come to him to refinance because only charged 1% APR, which is very little.

But as always there are windows of liquidity banks must ingéniaselas to get more money and this is where the competition starts to get money from ordinary citizens.

Clearly, there are many people who prefer not to earn a little extra to have to change banks but there are many people and with real money if you are willing to move to earn more.

Therefore, the most interest is willing to offer, in theory, is the one with more numbers to get more funding. (Although other factors influence how the country of origin of the entity, rating rating and even if you drop close to home or if you are good at managing the Internet).

Once we are clear because there are going to explain bank deposits which typically offer entities and that we'll be looking.

There are several types of deposits but of course we say that we are interested only pure and hard deposits without additional links, no credit, no insurance, or payroll or anything.

Being a low-risk investment, and suitable for every investor profiles, we can see that the investment triangle occupy a very relaxed site to be a liquid investment, low risk and therefore unprofitable.

Investing in this way we will not get rich but how low we will not lose money, and I say now lose because if you go to a lot of companies and they offer a lower interest rate to 3% and enter missing. So clear.

If you want a band inflation eats it otherwise you better grab your money and spend it how you will at least give pleasure.

We also have to look at whether the associated account where interest is exempt receive commissions or we will charge between 6 and 20 euros per year. Thing that still remains for the low profitability that we provide.

Now we are chastened and they do but you have to be careful that we do not give any kind of product then selling costs or recover the money, you can leereste article preferred to go deeper on the subject.

Remember that the bank is to serve. 's not your friend , and if not keep his promises or not treating you how you deserve there are dozens of them scattered throughout the geography.

As a final conclusion and summary say that everyone who has "some" money should try to get some performance to keep purchasing power and try to at least get something "extra". Do not be charging for anything and remember that it is you who is indebted to the bank money and not leaving you giving interests.

Finally, always read the fine print to take no surprises.

Indeed, investment is simpler than having no money at home. In contrast is the least profitable of all but ultimately is an investment at 0% APR.

I hope this clarification have no hesitation in going to the bank to make "some investment" and if you do not hesitate to contact me.

The 12 principles of value investing (Part 2)

As I mentioned last week the principles are based on ideas large investment managers such as Peter Lynch, Warren Buffett, Mario Gabelli, Charlie Munger, John Templeton, John Neff, Jim Rogers, Christopher H. Browne, Friedrich A. Von Hayek, Walter Schloss, Benjamin Graham and Francisco Garcia Paramés himself. These principles are contained in a book edited by Bestinver funds and summarized weekly by people.
Here we go with the following six principles:
7) Having a bad short-term behavior is inevitable: John Neff (1931) once said that "it is not always easy to invest in what is popular, but it is the way to get outstanding returns." Thus, less popular investments can generate short-term returns ill to stand in longer periods of tiempo.Por Therefore, choosing an investment manager for their results in the short term (less than 3 years) may lead to making the wrong decision, as the short-term outcome is not a good indicator of successful long. A study of Brandes on global equity funds reveals that, while the 7 best fund managers significantly beat the market over a period of 10 years, all had a worse performance than the benchmark for short periods of time.
8) It's not worth guided by economic forecasts: The co-founder of Quantum Fund Jim Rogers (1942) stated that "to be successful investing is necessary to go soon, when things are cheap, when there is panic, when everyone is demoralized ". Investors tend to follow the macroeconomic forecasts when investing, but the correlation between the stock market and the economy is much weaker than it may seem. So it's much more productive to devote every effort to the analysis of companies. It is also important to remember that economic forecasting is a very complicated task where mistakes outnumber the successes. The predictions of the analysts on the quarterly results of companies, according to a study by David Dreman, was erroneous in 75% of the time up to 10% on the quarterly results. Therefore not worth spending time and energy to the analysis of short-term variables totally uncontrollable as GDP, interest rates, the level of stock market indices or the company's quarterly results.
9) Do not invest in companies never overrated: One of the worst decisions of long-term investment is to buy shares overvalued because euphoria fashion sector or stock, as happened with Japan in the 90s, in which the country experienced the greatest speculative bubble twentieth century, when the real estate value was multiplied by 75 and the value of the stock by 100. The most dramatic case is that of the Nasdaq market that slumped 80% in less than three years, dragging millions of investors lose 99% of your investment. Many of these investors will take decades to recover your investment or just not ever recover. The most recent overvaluation has been in China's stock market, the index traded as at 40 times profit.
10) Do not let emotions guide your investment decisions: Benjamin Graham (1894-1976), economist and investor and pioneer of value investing, once said that "getting good returns is easier than people think. Get outstanding performance is much harder than people imagine. " And all because among the greatest challenges of a power inverter is staying true to its investment philosophy, never letting emotions dictate your decisions. And they usually do at the worst time, ignoring the famous board Buffet: "Be fearful when others are greedy and become greedy when everyone is afraid." In this sense, the statistics are revealing: in the last 20 years, the average profit of American funds in the stock market and 11.6%, however, the average profit Inverter U.S. equity funds is as only 4.5%. One of the most paradoxical is the famous Magellan Fund Peter Lynch, whose investors earned on average 5% annualized when performance that had the fund over 14 years was 29 % per year.
The causes of "self-destructive behavior" of the investor are many: to be guided by fear or ambition, invest in the fashion or not stay true to his philosophy. But above all highlights the general trend is the investor to try to predict the short term movement of the stock.
11) Do not try to predict the movement of the stock in the short term: According to the legendary American investor Walter Schloss (1916), "shyness generated by past failures causes most investors lost major bull markets." As described by Peter Lynch in his book "One Up on Wall Street", in late 1972, when the stock was about to suffer one of the worst crashes in history, optimism was at its highest point (85% of advisors were bullish as reported by Investor's Intelligence). At the beginning of the market rebound in 1974, 65% of advisors feared that the worst was yet to come. Again, before the fall of the stock market in 1977, 90% of advisors were bullish. At the start of big climb which took the market in 1982, more than half of the advisers predicted downs and just before the crash of 1987, 80% thought that the market would continue to rise. Lynch perfectly illustrates how difficult it is to predict the movement of stock markets.
Although long-term performance of any stock market approaches a constant 10%, yields on short-term stock market are asymmetric. A common tendency is to give investors their investment plan out of the market in the hope of re-entry when the environment is more favorable.
12) Patience is the main virtue of the successful investor: And, according to Francisco Garcia Paramés, investment director Bestinver AM, "the most fascinating of value investing is that time always works in your favor." Active Stocks are ideal for long-term get rich. Xigen But quality and less common among investors: patience. To achieve satisfactory performance in the stock market you need to have enough stamina to stay invested, sometimes even uncomfortable. Keep in mind that the U.S. stock market has provided positive returns to 5 years in 97% of cases. The market rewards the patient investor who stays true to their investment strategy, said in Bestinver. The Value Investing depends more on common sense, daily work and patience that individual sources of information or the prediction of future events. Its correct application minimizes the possibility of permanent losses in the portfolio and has produced positive results in the long run, beating the average market returns.
And this concludes the summary of the principles of value investing. This Saturday we are in 7th Rankia meeting where I am available to you all.
A greeting.