Strategy for change Euros into another currency. The right way.

There are quite a stir with the Spanish financial system and not for less. There are many people who come to the blog through an article I wrote about how to protect ourselves in case of financial playpen . Well, there are many readers who ask about the foreign exchange, exchange euros for dollars or Swiss francs.

A priori there is no secret but deep down is a dangerous operation to our heritage and here we will explain some concepts.

We will explain a strategy to follow if you want to change our euros for another currency, so whether there playpen, etc. back to the peseta.

Let's start from the premise that there is a strategy for all profiles and you have to be very clear concepts, which has a high risk and often not worth the want to protect with the end result.

To protect small amounts best and most practical refrain would buy U.S. stocks, get the money from the bank and save it at home or invest in a product that is not in euros and that is outside of our national borders.

Come to the point. It turns out that if we change our euros for Swiss francs Swiss francs have more euros as it changes at a rate of 1.20 francs per euro. If you always had this change of currency would not have any problem but not, it fluctuates daily and can vary significantly over time. For example, the October 12, 2007 was changed at a rate of 1.67 euro and Swiss franc on August 10 de 2011 to 1.04 francs a euro, almost parity.

What does that mean? Somebody would have changed 1000 euros into Swiss francs maximum day would have had 1670 Swiss francs and minimum day with the same 1000 euros only 1040 Swiss francs.

Example. If we change 10,000 euros to obtain CHF 12,000 CHF (Swiss Francs). (We do not have commissions to make it easier).

The change of today is 1 Euro 1.20 CHF but if in one year we have to recover the money and change is in 1.40 not recover the 10,000 euros but we have to do the following calculation: 12,000 / 1.40 = 8571 euros. With only twenty cents change coin we lost 1429 euros.

On the contrary if we do change to 1.10 Swiss francs will earn 10 cents euro the currency exchange and we bagged 900 euros obtaining a total of 10,900 euros.

So far there is no secret, pure mathematics. Doing this is very simple but do it well and minimizing risk is more complicated.

What would we do? Would open an account with a Forex broker (broker who works with currencies) and we we would have to create a hedge on our exchange.

If bought at 1.20 and increases (1.25, 1.30 ...) lose money so we will long (buy) in the EUR / CHF, ie bet that the change will continue to grow, that way currency exchange our money but lose our operation in derivatives will win, and more or less have to compensate.

We detect that the price turns and the Swiss franc starts to revalue against the euro, as long as we closed our investment in itself is no longer in losses.

If detected again as trends change can re-open a long or short hedging.

Summarizing. If the investment goes well we do nothing, if it goes wrong we opened a financial derivative currency pair opposite to our investment and investment lose but win with derivatives, to compensate. By detecting turnaround derivative will be closed and that our investment will not pro our derivative loss itself.

Surely there are people who do not understand these concepts, as I said at the start that it is a strategy for people who have some mastery of finance. But basically it's not complicated. You just have to learn to manage financial derivatives in Forex is tricky as there are lots of leverage and we can be more expensive the coverage of investment loss itself.

He opened the floor to questions

Waiting for the big-market bond rotation

The OECD issued its latest revision on global economic growth prospects, in the first of his two appointments or annual reviews. The overall impression is of slow growth and downward adjustments in earlier projections.

In USA GDP will expand even more slowly, at rates of 1.9% this year and 2.8% in 2014.

In Europe much more pessimistic, expecting a contraction of 0.36% of GDP this year and moderate growth of 1.1% in 2014. The main problem remains the debt.

For Asia disparate and curious vision, the two largest economies China and Japan grow although downgrades the first, to 7.8% and the second upward to 1.6%. Curious because if China grows below 7.8% will be a warning sign of weakness and would alert the government while if Japan grows by 1.6% all happy ... not the Nikkei has left a 5.15% on the session.

U.S. bond markets nervous, considering that the expected growth without being robust, it could be enough to affect the asset purchase program by the Fed.

Furthermore bonds approaching resistance area (in profitability or price support, as you look) interesting from a technical perspective, the 10 years in 2.4%, which if exceeded invite managers to modify some strategies.

The technical aspect of fixed income USA invites caution for months, as I come through the graphic exposing long stretch following:

Bonds "high Yied" are also suffering falling sales and prices in line with the sovereign. You can read at this link an interesting article about the risks of rising rates, derived from the tendency to convexity hedging.

A reference to the debt market USA is the ETF (AGG) designed to track the performance of all U.S. debt, Total U.S. Bond Market ETF (37% Treasuries, 28% MBS and the rest in corporate and agencies) capitalization of $ 15,600 million is also falling in price and this will be five weeks straight and falling sales.

Generally, when the bonds fall weak moves financial markets assembly and intermediate trends ruptures tend to bring major changes in the outlook and portfolio adjustment, feeding additional losses in assets.

This time, before such change in the mindset presumed investor and as turbulent markets, handled all markets fall? Unison or there will be a mass migration of Fixed Income Funds Equity?.

Uncertainty about the Great Rotation is debated and concern among fund managers and selectors will depend largely on market confidence about staying "apuntaladora" Bernanke and real economic opportunities.

In view of the behavior of the Fed, it could be argued that the Great Rotation want to further enhance asset reflation and get the expected wealth effect that can finally bring down the pernicious tendency of the money multiplier.

Specific corrections in stock prices are necessary and "healthy" for the strength of trends, there should be an adjustment at any time, perhaps coinciding with breaks bearish on bonds.

After an eventual correction will attract capital bags different sources, one of them raised liquidity proceed with the settings fixed income portfolio and if the helicopter flies over satin, as the FED-BAG correlation is 85%.

True, stock valuations discounted cash flow worsen with rising interest rates and subtract bag. However, the bag can also grow through multiples expansion as we tested several times.

The music continues to play and as said the CEO of City before the debacle, must keep on dancing ... but unlike Mr. Charles Prince also closely monitoring the situation to avoid being caught in an artificial rise will end in tears, as the rest.

Redemption Mortgage or leave the money on deposit?

This question always comes up in every discussion forums and in all conversations. In this blog will have generated enough comments like: 'I lack to pay 130,000 euros of mortgage and I have 40,000 in a deposit. What do I do with the savings? Amortized mortgage or leave it in the tank I might be giving interests?

The response itself is quite simple but you have to consider several factors. Not everything is to achieve maximum profitability.

If the 40,000 we have them in a tank get 4.5% APR 1422 after tax per year in interest.

If amortize mortgage until 9040 the maximum possible for us desgravamos holder a maximum of 15%, ie 1356 per year. But if the ownership of the mortgage there are two people you can deduct twice, 18.080 euros. With 15% return we will get 2712 euros hacienda.

 

 

The tariff includes fee, interest and principal. Therefore, if we pay a mortgage of 500 euros a month is 6000 a year and we should (in case of sole holder of the mortgage) repay to the maximum of 9040, ie add 3040 euros extra. Looking at it another way, we will have a deposit of 15% per year 9040.

If our mortgage fee is 850 euros per month 10,200 annual pay, therefore you should not write off anything because you spend the maximum in 1160, and in this case if you should leave the deposit at 4.5% APR and you probably have higher interest than you are paying for the mortgage.

If mortgage paid 650 euros a month (€ 7,800 per year) but we are two holders (my partner and I) we can deduct a maximum of 18,080 euros per year. That is, at the end of the fiscal year, in December, we'll add 10,280 euros to get the most and so will be like you have a deposit of 18,080 euros to 15% APR.

So much for the options to be financially profitable. But keep in mind that it is often better to pay a little more and have liquidity savings will run out sooner repay. I guess there are all kinds mentalities and before doing anything better inquire as to what may be the best option.

In case you want to ever repay mortgage amortized time and capital, since we got rid of shortening the time and lowering interest fee we will reduce some of the money to pay monthly but will also be paying interest to the bank.

Anyway people to purchase a residence from January 1, 2013 will no longer be tax deductible anything, so that 15% is canceled. In that scenario have the money saved to a good interest monetized over paid on the mortgage will be most profitable.